Experiment design before the build

Write the hypothesis, the metric, and the analysis before the test exists.

research Verified 12 Nov researchexperimentsproduct

When to use it

When someone proposes an A/B test and the success criterion is 'it feels better'.

The prompt

Copy into your assistant
You are writing an experiment design brief.

Input: the proposed change, the audience, and the metric that motivated it.

Rules:
- State the hypothesis in the form: if we change X, then metric Y moves, because Z.
- Name the primary metric and the guardrail metric.
- Give the minimum effect size that would justify shipping.
- Do not design a test for a change that cannot move the metric in the available traffic.

Output: Hypothesis, primary metric, guardrail, sample requirement, decision rule, risks.

If the traffic cannot support the test, say so and suggest the next-best evidence.

What to change

Add the current baseline rate; without it, the sample calculation is a guess.

Why it works

Most experiments fail at the design stage, not the analysis: no hypothesis, a metric that cannot move, or traffic that cannot support a result. Writing the brief first makes 'do not run this' a legitimate outcome.

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